World Cup final 16: Why each staff left will, gained't win all of it

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World Cup final 16: Why each staff left will, gained't win all of it
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World Cup final 16: Why each staff left will, gained't win all of it
Read Time:19 Minute, 24 Second


A typical World Cup can really feel like a marathon, however this one looks like a dash. After a nonstop, 13-day group stage ends on Friday, there aren’t any days off earlier than the spherical of 16 begins with Netherlands vs. USA and Australia vs. Argentina on Saturday.

– World Cup 2022: News and features | Schedule

Subsequently, we should not wait to preview the knockout rounds. Whereas the dance card continues to fill in, let’s discuss every qualifying staff’s largest strengths and weaknesses: principally, the explanations they superior, the explanations they may make a run and the deadly flaws that may in all probability journey them up sooner or later.

Editor’s Notice: As groups formally qualify for the spherical of 16, we’ll add them to the checklist, so test again Thursday night time and Friday night time for info and updates on the groups from Teams E, F, G and H — although we now have included Brazil (Group G) and Portugal (Group H) as their locations within the last-16 are already secured — that punch their tickets to the knockouts.

Let’s go!


Argentina (first place, Group C)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 12%
Spherical of 16 opponent: Australia (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)

Why they may win all of it: They’ve recovered from dropping to Saudi Arabia. As unimaginable because the Saudis’ 2-1 win was final Tuesday, it was a transparent and apparent “sports activities are dumb generally” end result. Argentina tried 15 pictures price 2.3 xG, and Saudi Arabia tried three price 0.2, however the latter trumped the previous, and the Saudis — to their credit score — defended splendidly down the stretch.

Marcotti: The seven tendencies of Messi vs. Poland

That match virtually ruined two matches; supervisor Lionel Scaloni made a ton of lineup modifications for what turned out to be a dire and unimpressive efficiency in opposition to Mexico. In some way a lineup with Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Angel Di Maria tried solely 5 pictures price 0.3 xG, however Messi’s fantastic long-range aim within the sixty fourth minute allowed them to loosen up. They noticed off Mexico, then dominated Poland 2-0 in a match that was nearer to about 4-0 than 2-1.

There was stress and there have been unforced errors, however they completed the group stage atop Group C, with the second-best xG differential within the match to this point (behind solely France). Their protection barely allowed any first rate appears to be like over three matches, they usually regarded the a part of the contender they had been alleged to be all alongside.

Why they will not: Boy, the vibes received darkish for a minute, did not they? Certainly, regardless of the fluky nature of the Saudi Arabia loss, Scaloni made 5 modifications to his lineup to convey a efficiency enhance to a aspect that in all probability did not really need one. They performed far worse, in accordance with each the stat line and the eyeballs. Messi bailed them out, they usually might have gotten a long-term enhance with how effectively youthful guys like Alexis Mac Allister and Julian Alvarez performed in opposition to Poland. However one other bout with that type of panic doubtless will not be rewarded.

Australia (second place, Group D)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight:
Spherical of 16 opponent: Argentina (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)

Why they may win all of it: They take their probabilities. If we had been being notably cynical (or maybe sensible), we might name the Socceroos fortunate. In three group stage matches, they tried 21 pictures price simply 1.8 xG however pulled three targets from them and stole a pair of 1-0 victories from Tunisia and Denmark. They tried fewer than half the variety of pictures (21) as their opponents (50) within the group stage, however superior.

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Rob Dawson reacts to Australia’s 1-0 win over Denmark and speaks about their probabilities within the World Cup knockout levels.

Nonetheless, one man’s fortunate is one other’s scientific. All three of their targets — Craig Goodwin’s counter-strike in opposition to France, Mitchell Duke’s flick of a header in opposition to Tunisia and Mathew Leckie’s weaving counter in opposition to Denmark — had been fantastically taken. In opposition to each Tunisia and Denmark, they cluttered taking pictures lanes and left their opponents with low-percentage alternatives whereas maximizing the hazard they created from minimal appears to be like. If you happen to do not want many probabilities to attain, you do not want many probabilities to drag an upset.

Why they will not: Okay, high quality, they’re fortunate. You do not get outshot greater than 2-to-1, with the second-worst xG differential (per-match) of the 32 groups, and advance very far. They received their doorways blown off by France, they allowed Tunisia to aim three of the match’s 4 most high-value pictures (per xG) whereas scoring on a low-percentage flick, they usually have accomplished simply 73% of their go makes an attempt, second lowest within the competitors (forward of Iran, who nonetheless tried far more pictures and created much more shot worth). The upsets had been superior to look at, as was the giddy reaction of Australia followers each within the stands and again at house. However this run of fortune is not going to final 4 extra matches.

Brazil (certified from Group G)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 25%
Spherical of 16 opponent: TBD

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Luis Miguel Echegaray reveals whether or not he favours Brazil or France as the 2 sides within the World Cup knockouts.

Why they may win all of it: Celebration within the entrance (finally), veterans within the again. Hiring a conservative coach (Tite) to steer a squad stuffed with flamboyant attackers can simply backfire with out the correct stability and man administration. You play away out of your strengths, the attackers get pissed off, and issues disintegrate.

In his six-plus years in control of the Selecao, Tite has principally discovered stated stability. Brazil have allowed simply 27 targets and misplaced solely 5 occasions in his 78 matches in cost. 4 of the 5 losses had been by one-nil margins — which hints at how issues look once they go unsuitable, however they do not go unsuitable typically.

The veteran base of defenders Thiago Silva (38) and Marquinhos (28) and midfielder Casemiro (30) was an unsolvable puzzle for each Serbia and Switzerland, who mixed to aim simply 11 pictures price 0.48 xG, placing none heading in the right direction. And as each opponents grew drained and pissed off, the Brazilian assault finally kicked in, they usually booked their last-16 spot with two wins. What has labored for six years beneath Tite has labored in Qatar.

Why they will not: The assault runs via Neymar (who’s damage as soon as once more). Brazil overwhelmed Serbia with 19 pictures and two targets within the second half. The ball was always at Neymar’s toes — he had essentially the most touches of any non-defender — and the eventual targets, each from Richarlison, felt inevitable.

Neymar left the match after 80 minutes, nevertheless, after struggling broken ankle ligaments. With out their focus, Brazil resorted to aimless crossing in opposition to Switzerland (25 of them, with solely a 16% completion fee) and tried solely 13 pictures. They finally took management with a scruffy late aim from Casemiro, however the assault wasn’t practically as clean with out its middle of gravity, whose return to the competitors is unknown.

England (first place, Group B)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 9%
Spherical of 16 opponent: Senegal (Sunday, 2 p.m. ET)

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0:40

England followers at Boxpark by Wembley Stadium have a good time the 2 targets early within the second half.

Why they may win all of it: Set items. They had been England’s secret weapon within the 2018 World Cup, the place the staff scored six set-piece targets (4 from corners) in seven matches, two of which put them forward in each the quarterfinals and semifinals.

They’ve solely received two such targets thus far — one from Bukayo Saka on a nook in opposition to Iran and one from a scorching Marcus Rashford free kick that opened the scoring in opposition to Wales — nevertheless it stays a transparent benefit as they’ve created 10 pictures from set items, and opponents have but to aim one. (The US created seven corner-kick alternatives however received no high quality appears to be like from them.)

Once you’ve received as a lot expertise as anybody within the competitors, and you have a cheat code for creating stable scoring probabilities, you are in nice form.

Why they will not: The subs are doing too effectively? It is an odd critique, admittedly, however the England assault is in a wierd place for the time being. The Three Lions scored 9 targets within the group stage with Gareth Southgate’s first-choice attacking trio of Harry Kane, Saka and Raheem Sterling performing comparatively effectively, scoring three targets and making a mixed 2.18 anticipated targets (xG) and anticipated assists (xA) in a complete of 512 minutes. That is a fee of 0.38 mixed xG+xA per 90 minutes. The trio of Rashford, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, nevertheless, mixed for a torrid 5 targets and three.37 xG+xA in simply 271 minutes, 1.12 per 90.

Historical past suggests Southgate will keep on with his weapons in the case of lineup alternatives, and having prolific bench gamers who’re commanding the next workload is a superb downside to have. However it will probably nonetheless be an issue should you aren’t placing your most in-form and efficient lineup on the pitch because the matches improve in significance. The very last thing you wish to do is depart out there targets unclaimed whereas making an attempt to convey the World Cup trophy house.

France (first place, Group D)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 11%
Spherical of 16 opponent: Poland (Sunday, 10 a.m. ET)

Why they may win all of it: Kylian Mbappe. France shortly secured development to the knockout rounds by caring for Australia and Denmark by a mixed 6-2 — which allowed them to discipline an extraordinarily rotation-heavy squad in opposition to Tunisia — however that rating line would not do justice to the degrees of domination in these two matches. They outshot their opponents by a mixed 44-14 and created 6.8 xG whereas permitting simply 1.2; whereas Australia had been clearly outmanned, Denmark had been thought-about a World Cup sleeper by many and will handle simply two shot makes an attempt within the first 67 minutes.

On the coronary heart of France’s success, in fact, has been Mbappe, the FIFA Younger Participant Award winner on the final World Cup and the present front-runner for Golden Ball winner at this one. As ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon laid out after two matches, the very best participant on this planet is enjoying a few of his best-ever ball at the absolute best time.

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1:56

Julien Laurens would not maintain again as he rips into Didier Deschamps and the French gamers after their 1-0 loss to Tunisia in Qatar.

Why they will not: The unsuitable form of conservatism. The trendy sport is one in every of urgent and possession, and it could make sense that many of the match favorites do these issues effectively. There are at the moment eight groups with betting odds of +1400 or higher to win the World Cup, and 6 of them at the moment rank within the high eight in passes allowed per defensive motion (PPDA, a standard measure of defensive depth), all averaging beneath 12.0 PPDA. Brazil (12.2, eleventh within the competitors) is shut. France (18.5, twenty sixth) just isn’t.

For all of their absurd expertise, they had been downright passive in opposition to Denmark, permitting the Danes to common 6.4 passes per possession and finish 50% of their possessions within the attacking third. This opened up area for transition assaults — one thing that the impossibly quick Mbappe and his teammates can thrive in at occasions — nevertheless it additionally raised a query: How will the French fare among the many finest possession groups within the discipline if they can not (or will not) take the ball away from them?

Netherlands (first place, Group A)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 5%
Spherical of 16 opponent: USA (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

Why they may win all of it: They flip you over. Louis van Gaal’s Dutch staff is energetic. They lead the competitors with the fewest passes allowed per defensive motion (9.3) and regardless of main for almost all of every group stage match, they began 29 possessions within the attacking third to opponents’ 17. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong leads the staff in ball recoveries, however the strain is a full-team effort: Netherlands have commanded 57% of general touches within the attacking third with a 57% possession fee.

They have the uncooked defensive expertise — Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Jurrien Timber, Matthijs de Ligt — to safeguard them whereas urgent closely (goalkeeper Andries Noppert has been glorious, too), they usually put the ball in additional harmful areas than opponents.

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Mark Ogden explains why he assume Senegal are the stronger of the 2 sides to advance from Group A on the World Cup.

Why they will not: No creativity. For such an energetic staff, the Dutch positive are stolid in assault. Regardless of all that possession in harmful areas, they managed simply 10 pictures price 0.7 xG in opposition to Senegal and two price 0.1 in opposition to Ecuador; they had been lucky to win the previous match and draw the latter, and if Cody Gakpo hadn’t scored together with his solely shot in every match, they would not have.

Gakpo, the more and more sought-after PSV Eindhoven attacker, has scored three targets from 4 pictures price simply 0.3 xG. The remainder of his teammates have scored simply two targets from 21 pictures price 2.5. They neither create high-quality or high-volume pictures — they averaged simply 0.3 huge probabilities created (“a scenario the place a participant ought to fairly be anticipated to attain,” as outlined by Stats Carry out) within the group stage; solely two groups averaged fewer, and that may finally turn into a transparent difficulty if it doesn’t change.

This makes their matchup with america an attention-grabbing one: the groups have loads of the identical strengths and similar weaknesses.

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight:
Spherical of 16 opponent: France

Why they may win all of it: They have the most popular goalkeeper within the competitors. Stat Carry out’s Targets Prevented measure compares the targets you have allowed to the post-shot xG worth of the pictures opponents put in your aim. Based mostly solely on that xG determine, Poland ought to have allowed about six targets within the group stage; they allowed solely two as a result of Wojciech Szczesny stood on his rattling head. He stopped penalties from each Messi and Saudi Arabia‘s Salem al-Dawsari, he stopped close-range efforts from al-Dawsari and Argentina‘s Rodrigo De Paul, and he saved 18 whole pictures on aim in three matches.

Enable even three targets as a substitute of two — which might have nonetheless been overachieving — and Poland could be on a airplane house proper now.

Why they will not: They can not create alternatives for probably the greatest strikers on this planet. In 19 matches with Barcelona this season, Robert Lewandowski has averaged 4.5 pictures, 0.8 xG and 1.1 targets per 90 minutes. In three World Cup matches, he has averaged 2.3 pictures, 0.6 xG and 0.3 targets. He scored his first ever World Cup aim in opposition to Saudi Arabia, however missed on a late chip in the identical match and had a penalty saved in opposition to Mexico. These had been his solely three pictures on aim in three matches. He barely touched the ball in opposition to Argentina and tried zero pictures.

Lewandowski is not Poland’s solely high-level participant, in fact — 14 different members of the roster play for golf equipment in Europe’s Huge 5 leagues — however when your headliner is neither getting the service he wants nor benefiting from the alternatives he will get, your ceiling is not going to be very excessive. He may unleash a hat trick at any time, but when he could not do it in opposition to Saudi Arabia, it is truthful to imagine the percentages aren’t excessive that he’ll do it in opposition to France.

Portugal (certified from Group H)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 8%
Spherical of 16 opponent: TBD

Why they may win all of it: The place passing is tougher, Portugal is best. One would assume {that a} squad that includes Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Raphael Guerreiro and Joao Cancelo could be one of many extra artistic within the competitors, and that has performed out to date. They’ve been lucky within the ending division — they created pictures price 3.3 xG of their first two matches however scored 5 targets from them, they usually scored one in every of their targets when Cristiano Ronaldo whiffed on a Fernandes cross (which fooled the Uruguayan goalkeeper) — however they nonetheless created loads of probabilities, they usually made positive that they had been the one staff usually finishing passes into harmful areas.

Cross completion fee into the attacking third:

  • Portugal 81%, Ghana 57% (Portugal gained 3-2)

  • Portugal 79%, Uruguay 64% (Portugal gained 2-0)

Fernandes and Silva have each accomplished 40 passes into the ultimate third (with a ridiculous 86% completion fee), and the stalwart Portuguese protection, led by cent-backs Ruben Dias together with veterans Danilo Pereira (31) and Pepe (39), has fended off most threatening buildups. Even one in every of Ghana’s targets got here on a cross {that a} defender deflected.

Why they will not: You need to maintain onto results in win all of it. When their first two matches had been tied, Portugal dominated, controlling 69% of possession, trying 19 pictures price 2.0 xG, permitting simply six pictures price 0.7 and scoring thrice. Dominant.

As soon as they had been forward, nevertheless, they sacrificed a harmful quantity of management. They allowed two targets to Ghana (one to tie the match at 1-1, one to make it 3-2), and in these two matches their possession fee fell to 45% with opponents trying 14 pictures to their seven. Whereas Brazil’s Tite has pulled off a stable stability of conservatism and attacking aptitude, one may argue that Portugal’s Fernando Santos hasn’t fairly discovered that very same stability.

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1:46

Mark Ogden provides his evaluation on the 2-0 win over Uruguay in Group H that takes Portugal into the spherical of 16 on the World Cup.

Senegal (second place, Group A)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 1%
Spherical of 16 opponent: England

Why they may win all of it: Transition. Tuesday’s Senegal vs. Ecuador match pitted two of the very best transition groups within the competitors. Of their first two matches, Ecuador had scored two of their three targets from what I name “transition possessions” — possessions starting outdoors of the attacking third and lasting 20 or fewer seconds — and had not allowed opponents a single shot in these possessions. However in opposition to Senegal, the shoe was on the opposite foot. Senegal created two early high-quality transition alternatives and allowed Ecuador none.

That is been the story of the competitors for Senegal. Their xG differential in transition possessions is +0.8, fourth finest amongst groups within the knockout rounds, and whereas they had been first rate in transition assault (one aim, 0.96 xG), their main energy was in utterly snuffing out opponents’ alternatives. The defensive backbone of keeper Edouard Mendy, center-backs Kalidou Koulibaly and Abdou Diallo and defensive midfielder Nampalys Mendy is as stout as nearly any within the World Cup.

Why they will not: You have to end. When the information got here down that star Sadio Mane was going to overlook the World Cup due to harm, it was truthful to marvel how on earth Senegal was going to place the ball within the web.

It is nonetheless truthful to marvel, too. Whereas they dealt with Qatar with ease, they usually tried loads of pictures in opposition to higher-level opponents Netherlands and Ecuador, the ending certainly lacked. They tried 28 non-penalty pictures price 2.14 xG in these two matches however scored simply as soon as from them, through a deflection to Koulibaly on a free kick. (In addition they scored on an Ismaila Sarr penalty in opposition to Ecuador.) They’ve been first rate at producing set-piece alternatives, however in open play they’re creating virtually no menace in opposition to stable opposition.

United States (second place, Group B)

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight: 1%
Spherical of 16 opponent: Netherlands

Why they may win all of it: The midfield is relentless. Wales could not transfer the ball via the midfield, in order that they began booting lengthy balls to a tall ahead. Jude Bellingham had 10 touches within the first 13 minutes however solely 40 thereafter as England discovered passing lanes via the midfield laborious to return by. (Mason Mount had solely 45 whole touches in 90 minutes.) Iran solely created 60 whole touches within the attacking third till Weston McKennie went off the sector within the sixty fifth minute. (They created 64 within the ultimate 25 minutes.)

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Relentless working and urgent from the trio of McKennie (24), Yunus Musah (20) and captain Tyler Adams (23) and fullbacks Sergino Dest (22) and Antonee Robinson (25) have made advancing the ball into harmful areas virtually inconceivable and allowed the US to regulate massive parts of video games — granted, with out producing a lot of high quality scoring alternatives — in opposition to not solely Wales and Iran but in addition England. And in the event that they had been capable of management Bellingham and Mount, they’ll management many of the midfields on this competitors.

Why they will not: Matches are 90 minutes lengthy. One downside with relentless working and urgent: It wears you out, particularly when a few of your most vital gamers got here into the World Cup with latest accidents and health considerations. McKennie is just averaging 69.3 minutes per match, Dest 78.0. And as these gamers start to tire, the Individuals’ effectiveness vanishes.

  • xG, first 60 min: USA 2.19, opponents 0.91 (precise rating: US 2-0)

  • xG, final 30 min: opponents 2.23, USA 0.35 (precise rating: opponent 1-0)

Fatigue has certainly restricted sure key gamers, and supervisor Gregg Berhalter’s substitution choices (each timing and personnel) have been, to place it diplomatically, shaky. When issues transfer into sport administration mode, the US shortly fray. The fatigue is not going to immediately get higher because the match progresses.





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